Bloomington, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

120
FXUS63 KIND 141659
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1259 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue today

- Conditional severe storm threat for Thursday, especially late day
into Thursday night. Additional severe threat on Friday, primarily
south of I-70.

- Warmest air of the year so far is expected Thursday-Friday...led
by near-record highs in the mid/upper 80s Thursday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Old boundaries plus forcing from the old upper low continues to
produce showers and isolated thunderstorms across areas east of
Interstate 65 this morning. The slow movement of the rain plus
efficient rain processes have produced locally heavy rain and
resultant flooding.

The rain should gradually diminish in coverage as forcing gradually
moves east. Locally heavy rain remains a threat with the rain that
remains. Will keep high PoPs east early then gradually diminish back
to chance PoPs into early afternoon.

If clouds thin enough east to allow instability to rebuild,
additional convection will pop up again later this afternoon. Given
the extensive cloud cover, lowered PoPs some east from the previous
forecast. Will continue to monitor.

Lowered high temperatures some east with the rain and clouds this
morning. May have to adjust further, again depending on how fast
cloud cover breaks up.

Southwestern areas should see a warm and humid day with little or no
chances for rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

A broad upper low, cutoff from the jet stream, continues to meander
slowly eastward through tonight. Early this morning, weak isolated
showers have formed along remnant boundaries from storms yesterday.

A lingering highly saturated corridor is creating patchy fog across
central Indiana which should disperse after sunrise. Showers and
thunderstorms are also expected to increase in coverage after
sunrise with best chances will be along and northeast of I-65. From
current radar, lingering boundaries are slowly pushing eastward
which is where diurnal heating will have the best chance to work
with the saturated atmosphere. Summer-like pop-up showers and storms
will be the main player today with ok CAPE and minimal lapse rates
or shear to work with. Light southerly winds will help to maintain
the warmer temperatures with highs from the upper 70s to low 80s
today.

PoPs will again decrease with sunset but could again see a few
showers lingering around tonight before a more potent potential
system moves in at the start of the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Thursday and Friday...

The long term will be potentially active to start with opportunities
for strong to severe storms on both days amid higher humidity and
near-record warmth.  Higher certainty continues for the higher
temperatures and dewpoints under a subtropical upper ridge advancing
from the south-central CONUS into portions of the Midwest...with
latest guidance suggesting a +6 degree Celsius rise in H850
temperatures during 12Z-20Z Thursday for much of the region.
Corresponding increasing southerly winds are expected to gust to 20-
25 mph across most counties Thursday afternoon, bringing widespread
mid/upper 80s and dewpoints nearing 70F.  Expect SCT/BKN decks and
the higher humidity to keep Indianapolis from its first 90F, yet
widespread heat index values in the low 90s are expected Thursday
afternoon.

Convection Thursday will be conditional given a strong capping
inversion, especially over the region`s southwestern half.  That
said, latest guidance is showing a 3-6 hour period centered around
the late day where several ingredients will likely be coming
together towards potential convective development...with CAPE levels
increasing from substantial to inordinate, including ample mid-level
lapse rates, and amid somewhat transient yet higher bulk wind shear
up to 50kt.  Low level helicity values should be relatively less
impressive yet still adequate.  And while instability should greatly
decrease immediately following 00Z, any established strong/severe
cells would likely still have life through much of the evening,
especially towards northeastern zones where parameters would be more
favorable after dark.  All modes of severe weather are possible,
with damaging winds the greatest threat...with large hail and a few
tornadoes possible from any mature supercells.  Any flooding would
hopefully be confined to the few strongest cells per storm motion to
the east-northeast at at least 30KT.

Friday will provide another conditional, yet overall less potent
potential for strong to severe storms...focused around a late day to
evening timeframe when perhaps briefly organized heavier rain
crosses portions of the region, ahead of the strong Great Lakes`
storm system`s slowly-passing cold front.  Low confidence on exact
location and timing with this threat...especially as lingering
boundaries from any storms Thursday possibly guiding this second
round.  All modes of severe weather may again be on the table, again
with lower certainty in both coverage and timing of stronger/severe
cells...although greater potential exists through PM hours south of
I-70 which will likely have longer residence in the system`s warm
sector.

Saturday through Tuesday...

Quieter and more seasonable weather expected for the weekend as
rather weak ridging begins to sneak into central Indiana under the
belly of the storm system slowly departing eastward across the Great
Lakes.  Early next week will feature a stronger upper ridge building
north through the Mississippi Valley towards Hudson Bay...which
should allow the southern portions of Canadian surface high pressure
to spill into the Midwest...albeit along with low chances for a few
showers shifting from Indiana`s southern half to end the weekend,
through most of the CWA by the Monday timeframe.

The next weather system crossing the northern Plains should bring
more numerous showers by the end of the long term, yet lower
confidence here with several members showing the western portions of
the ridge holding off organized showers until later in the Midweek.
All in all the weekend should be dry for most areas, with generally
pleasant conditions only a tad warmer/more humid than expected for
mid-May...with a slight increase in temps/dewpoints going into the
next workweek.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Impacts:

- Scattered SHRA and isolated TS this afternoon mainly KLAF/KIND and
  then again tonight most sites
- Brief MVFR ceilings possible this afternoon
- Potential for more MVFR ceilings Thursday morning
- Gusty winds Thursday

Discussion:

A weak trough will move north this afternoon and bring more
scattered showers and isolated storms, mainly for the northern
sites. This evening, another boundary will move north and bring
another threat for convection to most of the sites.

The day Thursday should remain convection free. Some MVFR ceilings
are possible in the morning with another boundary, then gusty winds
will develop.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...50